This article discusses climate change trends and their impact on food security, focusing on the effects of observed climatic changes on the dimensions of food security within agricultural systems.
Understanding Climate Change in Agricultural Contexts
The scientific community agrees that the climate is changing, primarily through rising global average temperatures. The NOAA 2019 Global Climate Summary reports that combined land and ocean temperatures have increased at an average rate of 0.07°C (0.13°F) per decade since 1880, with the rate doubling to 0.18°C (0.32°F).
Since 1981. Consequences of climate change include drought, increased heat, declining water supplies, and flooding.
Read Also: Sheep gene insights could help farmers breed healthier animals
Definition of Climate Change and Variability in Agriculture
Climate change refers to long-term weather trends over decades or centuries, including changes in average climate (e.g., annual temperature or precipitation) or extremes (e.g., intense rainfall frequency).
Climate variability, however, involves natural fluctuations in weather events on annual, seasonal, or decadal scales.
Climate change shifts these weather patterns over the long term, with the magnitude depending on greenhouse gas emission reductions and climate system sensitivity (IPCC, 2007).
Long-Term Climate Change: Rising Temperatures and Agriculture
Global average temperatures are projected to rise by 2–4°C above pre-industrial levels by the 2050s, with land areas experiencing greater increases than oceans, particularly in high-latitude northern regions, while tropical and subtropical areas see smaller rises.
1. Changes in Precipitation Patterns Affecting Agriculture
Climate models project general circulation and large-scale precipitation patterns with high confidence but have less certainty for regional projections.
Sparse rainfall records in regions like Africa and the Middle East, especially for intense events, and developing satellite measurements over oceans hinder model verification.
Most models struggle with monsoon events (Randall et al., 2007). Higher temperatures will intensify the hydrological cycle, increasing overall rainfall, but regional variations may reduce rainfall in some areas, with changes in timing and intensity impacting local agriculture (Meehl et al., 2007).
2. Other Climate Variables and Weather Patterns in Agriculture
Climate change manifests through rising sea levels, altered storm patterns, glacier melt, and changes in large-scale circulations, affecting water availability, drought, storm surge damage, and land loss.
While some areas may experience positive changes at lower climate change levels, many impacts will be negative (Parry et al., 2007).
3. Shifting Seasonal Climate Patterns in Agricultural Regions
Recent years have seen altered seasonality, with rural communities worldwide reporting erratic, shorter, and heavier rainfall, alongside unseasonal events like intense rains, drier spells, unusual storms, dense fogs, and temperature fluctuations (Devereux and Sabates-Wheeler, 2012).
Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Food Security
Climate change significantly worsens food security, threatening survival and sustainability. Projections indicate a 10–20% increase in people at risk of hunger by 2050, with 65% in Sub-Saharan Africa, and a 21% rise in malnourished children (24 million), predominantly in Africa (Parry et al., 2009; Nelson et al., 2009).
Read Also: 17 Medicinal Health Benefits Of Mucuna pruriens (Monkey Tamarind)
Mechanisms of Climate Change Impacting Food Security
1. Extreme Weather Events in Agriculture: Increased frequency and intensity of droughts, floods, and storms destroy crops, infrastructure, and community assets, deteriorating livelihoods and exacerbating poverty.
2. Long-Term and Gradual Climate Risks: Rising sea levels affect coastal and river delta livelihoods, while accelerated glacial melt reduces water quantity and reliability, with earlier melt seasons disrupting agricultural water access.
3. Geographic Distribution of Food Insecurity in Agricultural Regions
The most food-insecure populations live in Asia, Africa, and Latin America’s poorest, marginal areas, where environmental degradation and climate change intensify threats.
In Asia, high poverty and disaster magnitudes impact food security. In Sub-Saharan Africa, communities in degraded environments face increased degradation rates.
In Latin America, poor urban and rural settings are affected by climate-related disasters. Analysis by the United Nations World Food Programme and UK Met Office Hadley Centre highlights intersections of climate risks (floods, droughts, storms) with high poverty and climate sensitivity in West, East, Southern Africa, and South Asia.
Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Food Systems and Nutrition
Climate change exacerbates threats to food security and livelihoods through increased climate hazards, reduced agricultural yields, health and sanitation risks, water scarcity, and resource conflicts, leading to humanitarian crises and displacement (IPCC, 2007).
It affects all food security components: availability, access, stability, and utilization. Rising CO2 emissions, beyond causing global warming, reduce crop nutritional value (protein, zinc, iron), potentially causing zinc deficiencies in 175 million and protein deficiencies in 122 million by 2050.
Livestock, reliant on similar resources, face drought-related losses (36% of losses, compared to 49% for crops). Fish populations, particularly in Southeast Asia, are threatened by climate extremes.
In Nigeria and other agrarian countries, seasonal food consumption patterns, especially in rural areas, lead to reduced intake during pre-harvest “lean seasons.” Climate-driven harvest reductions may extend these periods.
Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Food Systems
Weather-related disasters reduce yields of major crops due to higher temperatures, droughts, floods, water scarcity, and increased CO2 concentrations. The Food and Agriculture Organization notes that 89% of unpredictable cereal crop yields in semi-arid regions result from climate variability.
Direct impacts include altered agro-ecological conditions; indirect impacts involve economic growth and income distribution changes affecting agricultural demand.
In tropical regions, where food security issues are prevalent, temperature increases are predominantly detrimental, reducing cropland quality and quantity.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, land for double cropping may decline by 10–20 million hectares, and triple cropping land by 5–10 million hectares (Fischer et al., 2002).
Effects on Food Security Dimensions in Agriculture
1. Availability (Sufficient Food Quantity): Reduced production in tropical regions affects dietary diversity. Altered land suitability and precipitation patterns threaten rain-fed agriculture sustainability. Higher temperatures may extend growing seasons in temperate regions and reduce frost damage, while CO2 fertilization could benefit certain crops.
2. Access (Ability to Obtain Food): Lower yields raise food prices, reducing income for vulnerable populations reliant on agriculture, limiting market access due to price spikes from weather disasters.
3. Utilization (Food Quality and Safety): Climate-related risks reduce calorie intake, increase disease prevalence, and affect food safety through pests and water pollution, exacerbating malnutrition.
4. Stability (Consistent Access to Resources): Increased extreme events disrupt food supply and agricultural incomes, destabilizing livelihoods.
Addressing Climate Change for Agricultural Food Security
Climate change, a threat multiplier for hungry and undernourished populations, heightens vulnerability in countries with limited adaptation capacity. Combined with conflict, it destroys livelihoods, drives displacement, and undermines the SDG goal of zero hunger by 2030.
Seasonal hunger and under-nutrition, strongly tied to climate factors in regions like the Sahel and Horn of Africa, impact crop and animal production, income, diseases, and nutrition.
To achieve 2030 hunger goals, addressing the climate crisis and inequities is critical, fostering global solidarity to mitigate causes and adapt to effects in vulnerable agricultural communities.
Do you have any questions, suggestions, or contributions? If so, please feel free to use the comment box below to share your thoughts. We also encourage you to kindly share this information with others who might benefit from it. Since we can’t reach everyone at once, we truly appreciate your help in spreading the word. Thank you so much for your support and for sharing!